Sierra County has recently experienced a spike in COVID-19 cases, which stood at 47 on Oct. 1 and at 76 on Oct. 20, a 62 percent increase in cases in three weeks.
New Mexico Department of Health spokesperson David Morgan, in an email exchange on Oct. 14, said Sierra County has no known hot spots spreading COVID-19.
“The increase in cases in Sierra County by far and away is because of community spread,” said Morgan, the department’s health media and social media manager.
“Community spread,” he explained, “is the spread of a contagious disease or virus to people in a particular geographic spot, who have no known contact with an infected person.”
“So, for example,” Morgan said, “to the best of my knowledge I have had no known contact with someone with COVID. So, let’s say last Tuesday, I got coffee at Dunkin Doughnuts, and I handed the cashier my debit card for her to swipe. I don’t know if she has COVID or not—she could have it and not even know it herself.
“She hands me back my card and I stick it in my wallet, she hands me my coffee and I go to work or go about my life, whatever. If she doesn’t have COVID and I don’t have COVID, nothing goes wrong and we’re both fine. But if she had COVID and she passed the virus to me because she and I both handled my debit card, that would be community spread.”
Contact tracing distinguishes if COVID-19 is transmitted through community spread or if there is a hot spot generating a lot of cases.
“With contact tracing,” Morgan said, “if I were to feel funky and get tested and the test comes back positive, the contact tracer will ask me where I’ve been over the last couple of weeks. Depending on where I’ve been, that can be a long list of places or a short list.
“For me, the first six months of the pandemic, that was a really short list. I went to work and home and that was basically it. However, it’s been a different story for me for the last 30 days because my coffee maker is broken. I got so much work to do I never get around to replacing it, and so sometimes I go to Dunkin to get coffee on the way to work.
“So, say I got diagnosed with COVID this week. Tracer asks where have you been the last two weeks? I’d tell them, well, I haven’t been going to church like I used to, but I’ve been to Dunkin several times to get coffee. Thanks to my debit card, I can look up my transactions online and I can tell the contact tracer I’ve been there on October 5th, 7th, 8th 13th and 14th.
“The contact tracer is then going to crosscheck the database of recent COVID positive people to see how many people reported going to Dunkin in Las Cruces just like I did. If there are a lot of cases that have going to Dunkin in common around those same dates—then that store may be found out to be a hot spot for cases. If there aren’t cases in common, it’s not the hot spot.”
Community spread, rather than through hot spots, is primarily how the virus is advancing, Morgan said.
“Community spread is so common here in NM and nationwide,” Morgan said, “that it’s hard to tell sometimes where you got COVID. And the more places someone goes, the better their chances of getting it. What I’ve been trying to say is for the cases in Sierra County there are no hot spots. It’s a case here. Two cases there. And a case at this place and another over here. There’s no ground zero where most of the COVID positive residents have been that counts as a hot spot.”
“The good news for Sierra County is that even though case numbers have risen in the county, they have not risen as fast as both Luna and Dona Ana Counties. Sierra County’s test positivity rate is still under 5 percent—which is exactly where it needs to be, and the lower that rate gets, the better off everyone will be.”
“New Mexico—and almost everywhere nationwide—is experiencing COVID fatigue. You, me, all of us have been so vigilant for so long that we collectively let our guard down. Especially when we see case numbers falling, it makes sense that as we get better, we instinctively ease up on the precautions we’ve been taking.
“The problem with that is how contagious the COVID-19 virus is compared to even the common cold,” Morgan said. “Each time we’ve let our collective guard down in New Mexico, the cases have spiked again. So, we have to keep our guard up and mask and maintain distance and limit where we go out in public and wash our hands or use hand sanitizer frequently to prevent the spread.”
New Mexico Environment Department Data
The NMED website has a database that lists, by county, workplaces a NMED “rapid response” team has visited after an employee tests positive for COVID-19.
From Sept. 1 to Oct. 18, the following local enterprises were visited by the NMED, starting with the most recent cases first:
Oct. 16–855 Van Patten St., Sierra County Administration building, one employee
Oct. 15–County Road A021, SpinLaunch as Spaceport America, two employees
Oct. 11–905 Date St., O’Reilly Auto Parts, one employee
Oct. 11–2001 H. R. Ashbaugh Dr., Walmart, one employee
Oct. 10–2001 H. R. Ashbaugh Dr., Walmart, one employee
Oct. 2–1425 E. 2nd Ave., Housing Authority, the number of employees not given
Sept. 14–Highway 181, Bartoo Sand & Gravel, one employee
New Mexico Department of Health Data
Cumulatively, since the COVID-19 crisis began to Oct. 20, the county has tested 8,366 people, with 76 testing positive. Of the 76 one person has died.
The “test positivity rate” is 4.4 percent.
The reader should be aware, however, that 8,366 out of 10,963 people in the county (the U.S. Census 2018 estimate) have not been tested, which is more than 76 percent of the population.
The Sun contacted Morgan again, and asked if the 8,366 included repeated tests of the same people, such as hospital workers or nursing home employees. The Sun also asked if the DOH had a list of facilities and businesses that were having their employees regularly tested and, if so, if the DOH were conducting those tests.
Morgan’s auto-response indicated he was “out on extended medical leave,” and his duties were being handled by NMDOH Communications Director Marisa Maez.
On Oct. 19, Maez responded by email, “Overall, the number you are referring to is the number of tests conducted, not the number of individual people who have been tested, and the Veteran’s Home in T or C have had a few mass testing events in that congregate setting.”
Morgan, in an earlier interview, said state testing was focusing on “essential workers.”
Therefore, it is unknown what portion of the county population has been tested, and the 4.4 percent test positivity rate likely does not reflect the infection rate among Sierra County residents.
According to an online margin-of-error calculator, nearly 3,000 people out of a population of 10,000 would need to be tested to project the infection rate within a 2 percent margin of error.
That sample size would allow the county to estimate, with confidence, what percentage of the population has the virus, but, of course, that would be a moving target requiring ongoing testing to monitor the infection rate.
Excellent article, and the kind of information we, as individuals, need to adjust our lifestyle to the virus. Well done.
It’s Thursday, less than 24 hours since this article was published. Sierra County today has 81 covid cases. That is five more in less than 48 hours; thirteen more cases since the last mentioned location on Oct 16th at the Van Patten County office building, While I appreciate David Morgan’s lengthy explanation of “hot spots”, first there is no Dunkin Doughnuts here in Sierra County; second, the number of possible spreader locations in Sierra County is far fewer than I think he is abstractly relaying. I suspect there is overlap happening that is under-detected. It is possible, in part, because the contact tracer is not actually familiar with Sierra County.
Of all these spiking cases in Sierra County, how many deaths?
Hello Betsy. One person has died so far.
Editor’s Note: According to the New Mexico Department of Health’s coronavirus database, nine new cases of COVID-19 were reported today in Sierra County, bringing our cumulative total to 89.
One death in Sierra County in 8 Months in a Population of 10,963 per Dept. of Health. The rate of positive tested is 89/10,963 or .00812 is totally disproportionate to the actions we are under that control our lives and inflict great harm both physically and financially. Logic and reason seem to be major victims of this so called “pandemic.” Consider that 30,700 people have died each day from HUNGER and compare that with the 3,877 who have died from Covid-19 on a daily average, then tell me how the true health problem of this world is being dealt with. As a species, are we really concerned about our fellow man or is this just hubris raised to the nth power? Take your life back from those who will enslave you if you let them.
Hello, Ron. I would like to point out that the “rate of positive tested” is not 89/10,963. That assumes 100 percent of the local county population has been tested. As the article points out, we don’t know how many people have been tested in the area, because duplicates are not dropped out. As of Oct. 22, 8,624 tests have been given. However, we know that the New Mexico State Veterans’ Home home has 128 residents and about 200 staff (counting occupational therapists, etc., coming and going, but not working there full time). We know residents and staff, since sometime in April, have been 100 percent tested one time per month, which is 328 times 5 or 1,640 tests, at least. We also know that three times they found a positive test case, which triggered 100 percent testing a week until it went to zero, or 328 times 3 or 984 more tests at the home. Therefore, of the 8,624 tests given, at least 2,624 were done at the veterans’ home. Unless you are testing about a third of a given population, you cannot estimate the infection rate. Of NMSVH staff, so far, 4 have tested positive, or 4 out of 200, which is a 2 percent rate of infection. Of residents, 2 have tested positive, or 2 out of 128, or a nearly 1.6 percent rate of infection. Considering the hyper-scrutiny they are under and the super-careful precautions they are likely taking, I think this is significant. In any case, the 2 percent infection rate for a 100 percent tested population is a lot higher than your implied .0082 percentage for the county population.
Comparing over 3,000 deaths a day from the coronavirus to over 30,000 deaths a day from hunger does not make sense to me, either. So far, since Mar. 11 to Oct. 20, according to https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths, 1.12 million deaths from coronavirus have been confirmed, but the trajectory is at a 45 degree angle, that is, the rate of death is increasing daily, and a daily average cannot be assumed. We do not have a trend for coronavirus as we do for the flu, for example, which has been tracked for decades. I imagine starvation deaths fluctuate wildly too, given climate change, war and other variables.