An assessment of the economic development needs of Sierra and Socorro Counties, conducted by 25 community leaders late last year with the assistance of the Middle Rio Grande Economic Development Association with the assistance of Community Economic Labs of Albuquerque, has prompted interest in revitalizing the Sierra County Economic Development Organization.
The assessment determined that the two counties will need to create a total of 1,920 jobs (1,008 in Sierra County) to recover from a decade of economic contraction, compounded by pandemic-related business losses and closures, to reach full employment.
Stating that the two counties face “dire social and economic consequences” if they continue to operate without “fully funded, cohesive economic development efforts,” the assessment recommends that, as a first step, leaders in each county begin “recruiting and engaging a planning and management group, and begin advocating for State and Federal and Private Sector Funding.”
MRGEDA will use this assessment, which has not yet been made available to elected officials who did not participate in its creation or to the public, to guide its efforts to help Sierra and Socorro Counties meet this goal within five years.
Sierra County Manager Bruce Swingle, who chairs MRGEDA, provided the Sun with a copy of the assessment (which can be read in full by clicking on the “Download” button below). At the Sierra County Commission’s December meeting, Swingle informed the commissioners only that the assessment was complete and that elements of it would be implemented over the next few years.
In an interview with the Sun, Swingle said that he is writing a resolution for the commission to consider approving in February to restart the Sierra County Economic Development Organization. Swingle said that the county needs, in addition to the regional MRGED effort, a more locally focused economic development program. “We need some skin in the game,” Swingle said. The hope is to get local stakeholders like banks, utilities, local governments and larger companies to use the information developed by the MRGEDA assessment participants to improve Sierra County’s economic growth.
At last week’s Truth or Consequences City Commission meeting, Commissioner Frances Luna gained informal approval to act as the “city’s representative” in inviting participation from local stakeholders in a revitalized SCEDO.
The assessment participants concluded that Sierra County’s “economic development predicament is desperate but hopeful.”
The county’s slow economic decline accelerated with the recession of 2008 that started with the subprime mortgage lending crisis. In the two decades preceding the recession, unemployment in Sierra County ran between 3 and 6 percent, according to FRED, the online economic research database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (which is the source of the following unemployment data). During the recession, unemployment in the county jumped to a high of 9.8 percent, where it stayed until 2013, when the rate slowly began recovering. It stood at 6.8 percent by 2019. The pandemic has seen those gains disappear. In November 2020, the unemployment rate had again soared to 8.5 percent.
Not all of the economic news in Sierra County has been bad. According to the 2020 Economic Base Report for Sierra County published annually by the Arrowhead Center at New Mexico State University, the per capita income in the county grew from 2014 to 2018 at a faster rate (12.88 percent) than for the state as a whole (11.91 percent). Per capita income in the county is just below that of the state ($38,984 versus $41,609). Also, the rate of employment in the county grew faster from 2014 to 2018 than that of the state (4.11 percent versus 2.93 percent). On the other hand, the population of the county decreased by 2.65 percent during that time, while the state as a whole increased by 0.24 percent.
Sierra County’s base industries—industries with the highest percentage of total local employment—are state and federal government, agriculture and tourism, which includes lodging and food services, as well as arts, entertainment and recreation. In 2018, these base industries accounted for 1,432 of the total 5,036 jobs in the county. According to the Economic Base Report, any base-sector job added in the county could be expected to generate 3.5 non-base sector jobs.
Funding for the MRGEDA assessment to determine where the region stands and what base industry jobs can be created to reach full employment came from state Representative Gail Armstrong of District 49, which includes Socorro County. Sierra County leaders who contributed to the assessment included (in addition to Swingle) Kim Skinner, Elephant Butte council president pro tem and chair of the Sierra County Recreation and Tourism board; Linda DiMarino, executive director of MainStreet Truth or Consequences; Katherine Elverum, a caseworker with Olive Tree Integrated Community Center in Truth or Consequences; and MRGEDA board member Steve Buckley.
In five Zoom workshops of three hours each held last October, the participants first looked at population projections, demographics and unemployment rates to calculate the total number new jobs needed to reach full employment.
The group then estimated how many potential jobs could be created in the base industries by ramping up existing economic development programs and launching new initiatives. In addition to agriculture, government and tourism, they considered the potential for job growth in four additional industries: retirement, extractives, remote work and film/digital.
They calculated that, if Sierra County continues in a “business as usual mode,” only 555 new jobs will be created. However, with increased cooperation between local stakeholders and coordination of economic development programs, Sierra County could create as many as 955 new jobs. While that number would fall short of 1,008 new jobs goal, it would begin to reverse such adverse trends affecting Sierra County as rising unemployment, population loss, tax revenue contraction and government services cuts.
The group concluded that the industries with the greatest potential for generating new jobs were extractives (375 jobs), tourism (150), remote work (140) and retirement (125).
MRGEDA Director Keller said in an interview with the Sun that she has begun working with each of the chairs in the organization’s six industry clusters to identify projects that might be accomplished within a year or two. For example, the agriculture cluster is working on developing a ranchers co-op. Given the difficulties of getting beef to market during a pandemic, a co-op might open up opportunities for marketing beef products locally. As a step in this direction, at tomorrow’s Sierra County Commission meeting, a resolution supporting reestablishment of the state meat inspection program will be introduced.
The MRGEDA tourism industry cluster is working on finding assistance in the form of grants to help hospitality, retail and service businesses through the pandemic, as well as encouraging them to figure out ways to operate remotely.
The participants concluded that achieving Sierra County’s job creation goals will be heavily dependent on the success of Spaceport America and the start-up of the Copper Flat Mine, whose re-opening has been stalled for years by local citizens concerned about the mine’s projected high water usage rates, potential to contaminate the watershed with toxic tailings, and the limited economic benefit to be derived from a cyclical enterprise with a projected short lifespan.
Economic development will also be dependent, Keller explained, on increasing broadband accessibility and quality throughout the county, and construction of the needed infrastructure is underway (see “Related” stories below). The assessment factored in the creation of 140 remote jobs, some of which will provide jobs for the current Sierra County residents, with others expected to come from new residents attracted to the area by internet accessibility.
We should question the way local officials are going about this. Who could possibly follow, much less attend, all these sessions with funny acronyms attended by many of the same self-important people? The windows should be opened to let in lots of fresh air. How about a widely noticed Open House (on Zoom?) with a moderator taking oral and written comments from ordinary citizens? Then a plan could be developed that included, and responded to, ideas offered by people who care about their communities and their environment.
That draft plan could then be made available online and in a printed version for further public review. A final meeting, perhaps before a non-intimidating panel of receptive elected leaders (not elevated in bright lights on a dais!) could allow everyone to ask probing questions and personally advocate for their economic development ideas.
A final document that went through this route with public input would make citizens feel at least like they were being listened to as part of a fair, inclusive process. Democracy is perhaps the messiest, most drawn-out form of government; but it is far better than government by an oligarchy of acronyms. (This process assumes a reliable, easy-to-use Zoom, not like we have had recently at Truth or Consequences City Commission meetings.)