Sierra County Manager Bruce Swingle fears that the U.S. Census Bureau’s overestimation of the number of residential units in the county will throw off the county’s apportionment of federal dollars.
The bureau estimated the county has 10,000 residential units, Swingle said in a briefing about the census count at the Oct. 20 county commission meeting.
The “public response” portion of the count—that is, people relaying their census information by phone, paper form or online form—was 39 percent of 10,000 residential units, Swingle said.
“With a population between 10,000 and 11,000, there is no way we have 10,000 residential units,” Swingle said.
The average occupancy rate of a residential unit is a little over two people, he said, making between 5,000 and 6,000 residential units a reasonable estimate of the number of “households” in the county, Swingle pointed out.
Swingle said he contacted other rural New Mexico counties to see if the U.S. Census had overestimated their residential units. “They had the same problem,” he said.
Swingle tried to correct the residential-units estimate with the U.S. Census Bureau without success. “Communication was a one-way street,” he said.
The “public response” may be at 39 percent, Swingle said, but the final apportionment is up to “numerators,” whose count will “not be known until much later.”
By law, the U.S. Census Bureau must turn in its “apportionment counts”to the president by Dec. 31, 2020.
According to the New Mexico Human Services Department, more than $800 billion in federal money is apportioned throughout the U.S. using census data. New Mexico’s portion is about $7.8 billion over the next 10 years.
The largest “census-guided program” in the state is the $4 billion Medicaid program, according to the Sierra County Census Complete Count Committee’s Facebook page.
New Mexico Senator Tom Udall said, in a press release, that a 1 percent undercount of the population could result in a loss of $1 billion apportionment in New Mexico over the next 10 years.
Each person counted in New Mexico equates to $37,450 in federal disbursements over 10 years, according to the state Human Services Department.
The timeframe for the census count is normally March 1 through the end of July but, because of the coronavirus pandemic, the deadline was extended to Oct. 15, Swingle said.
The county had set up nine computer labs for residents to fill in their census forms, Swingle said, “but all that had to be terminated, as well as the usual community events.” These outreach efforts would probably have boosted participation in the census.